Decision making under uncertainty
The team are developing an adaptive framework for infrastructure planning in multi-sector systems, to address uncertainty associated with climate change and resource demand. They are demonstrating the benefit of this approach by comparing it to formulations of water-energy-systems using a synthetic case study and findings show adaptive infrastrucutre investment in a multi-sector system is efficient (as opposed to static or scheduled planning).
The team are inputting their research into the Pywr simulator to enhance the economic considerations of the systems modellling.
A further adaptive approach is being developed using a tree-based formulation, as well as a game theory application to water-energy systems to optimise decsision making.
Research update video
This video was produced for the FutureDAMS annual forum (November 2020) as a summary of the team’s research progress.
- Decision-Dependent Uncertainty in Adaptive Real-Options Water Resource Planning
- Real-Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty
- Spatial and sectoral benefit distribution in water-energy system design